Saturday, May 30, 2009
Conference finals wrap-up and Cup prediction
One up, one down, but a bonus point for the Detroit series. So cumulatively I'm 9/14, 12 points.
Pittsburgh 4 Carolina 3. I certainly didn't see this coming. The Canes ran out of gas. I'll give Boston credit and say that they wore them down. As it turned out, Ward did not outplay Fleury; and the Carolina depth was nowhere in evidence. And clearly I underrated the Penguins, or at least their momentum and determination.
Detroit 4 Chicago 1. Got this one on the money. Detroit was just way too much.
And now, the Cup. Of course, as everyone has pointed out, it's a rematch of last year's final - the first rematch since Edmonton beat the Islanders. I remember that series. At least, I remember this much: I thought the Isles would win, and I was wrong. (I picked the Oilers in the first meeting, and I was wrong that time too.) And I remember the defending champions looking very old and very slow. So will this year be a replay of that changing of the guard? I don't think so, and here's why.
First, Pittsburgh in 2009 is not the Oilers of 1984. Yes, they have Malkin and Crosby, and they're both playing terrific hockey right now. But while Sid may be another Messier in terms of leadership, and better than him as a playmaker, Malkin is not quite Gretzky. The third centre on that Oilers team was Ken Linseman. Eat my dust, Jordan Staal. And who is Pittsburgh's Kurri? Its Glenn Anderson? Obviously, there is no one close. On defence, Sergei Gonchar is pretty good, but he's not in the same league as Paul Coffey. Defensively, Edmonton's remaining corps of Kevin Lowe, Charlie Huddy, Lee Fogolin, and Randy Gregg was way better than Pittsburgh's group. In goal, Fleury is not better than Grant Fuhr.
Second, the 2009 Red Wings are better than the 1984 Islanders. Not a lot better, I think, but deeper. The Islanders had Trottier, Bossy, Gillies, Brent Sutter, and Greg Gilbert all playing well offensively. John Tonelli was still in his prime, but had a poor play-offs. Other forwards were slowing down (e.g., Butch Goring, Bob Nystrom) or not there yet (e.g., Pat LaFontaine). The Red Wings have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hossa, Franzen, Cleary, Filppula, Helm, Hudler, and Samuelsson. That's nine, and the rest of the cast aren't slouches either. On defence, Nicklas Lidstrom is the equal of the great Denis Potvin. The rest of the defence crew, however, is far superior in my view to what the Islanders had. (And, more importantly, what the Pens have.) Chris Osgood is in many ways similar to Billy Smith - a tough, money goalie.
Okay, Pittsburgh is more ready this year than they were last year. They come in with a lot of momentum. They're young and they're fast. Except for the first factor, all of these things also applied to the Hawks, and the Red Wings crushed them. (Okay, assuming Fleury doesn't get hurt, they're not going to hand Detroit easy goals.) The schedule favours Pittsburgh, and so does the injury situation, although Lidstrom and Ericsson are expected to play in game 1 and I expect Datsyuk will return for game 2 or at worst game 3. Still, the Wings are just too deep, too skilled, too disciplined, too well coached, and too damn good.
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3.
Pittsburgh 4 Carolina 3. I certainly didn't see this coming. The Canes ran out of gas. I'll give Boston credit and say that they wore them down. As it turned out, Ward did not outplay Fleury; and the Carolina depth was nowhere in evidence. And clearly I underrated the Penguins, or at least their momentum and determination.
Detroit 4 Chicago 1. Got this one on the money. Detroit was just way too much.
And now, the Cup. Of course, as everyone has pointed out, it's a rematch of last year's final - the first rematch since Edmonton beat the Islanders. I remember that series. At least, I remember this much: I thought the Isles would win, and I was wrong. (I picked the Oilers in the first meeting, and I was wrong that time too.) And I remember the defending champions looking very old and very slow. So will this year be a replay of that changing of the guard? I don't think so, and here's why.
First, Pittsburgh in 2009 is not the Oilers of 1984. Yes, they have Malkin and Crosby, and they're both playing terrific hockey right now. But while Sid may be another Messier in terms of leadership, and better than him as a playmaker, Malkin is not quite Gretzky. The third centre on that Oilers team was Ken Linseman. Eat my dust, Jordan Staal. And who is Pittsburgh's Kurri? Its Glenn Anderson? Obviously, there is no one close. On defence, Sergei Gonchar is pretty good, but he's not in the same league as Paul Coffey. Defensively, Edmonton's remaining corps of Kevin Lowe, Charlie Huddy, Lee Fogolin, and Randy Gregg was way better than Pittsburgh's group. In goal, Fleury is not better than Grant Fuhr.
Second, the 2009 Red Wings are better than the 1984 Islanders. Not a lot better, I think, but deeper. The Islanders had Trottier, Bossy, Gillies, Brent Sutter, and Greg Gilbert all playing well offensively. John Tonelli was still in his prime, but had a poor play-offs. Other forwards were slowing down (e.g., Butch Goring, Bob Nystrom) or not there yet (e.g., Pat LaFontaine). The Red Wings have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hossa, Franzen, Cleary, Filppula, Helm, Hudler, and Samuelsson. That's nine, and the rest of the cast aren't slouches either. On defence, Nicklas Lidstrom is the equal of the great Denis Potvin. The rest of the defence crew, however, is far superior in my view to what the Islanders had. (And, more importantly, what the Pens have.) Chris Osgood is in many ways similar to Billy Smith - a tough, money goalie.
Okay, Pittsburgh is more ready this year than they were last year. They come in with a lot of momentum. They're young and they're fast. Except for the first factor, all of these things also applied to the Hawks, and the Red Wings crushed them. (Okay, assuming Fleury doesn't get hurt, they're not going to hand Detroit easy goals.) The schedule favours Pittsburgh, and so does the injury situation, although Lidstrom and Ericsson are expected to play in game 1 and I expect Datsyuk will return for game 2 or at worst game 3. Still, the Wings are just too deep, too skilled, too disciplined, too well coached, and too damn good.
Detroit 4 Pittsburgh 3.
# posted by Stephen @ 12:28 a.m. 
