Tuesday, April 28, 2009
First round wrap-up and second round predictions
A very creditable performance, I think: 6-2 with a bonus point for 7 points total.
Boston 4 Montreal 0. I gave Montreal a game, based largely on the history of the play-off rivalry between these two clubs. But when the disparity in talent is so great, history doesn't even count that much. Montreal's showing was really quite pitiful. And Carey Price never threatened to steal a game, let alone the series.
Washington 4 New York 3. If Boudreau had played Varlamov in game 1, my prediction of 4-2 might have been right on. As it was, New York managed to cough up the series. Lundqvist wasn't quite good enough to salvage the Rangers, who really were anemic on offence. As predicted, talent counts.
Carolina 4 New Jersey 3. Another great comeback win gives me my bonus point. Just like I said, Ward outplayed Brodeur, particularly in the decisive game, in which Brodeur gave up two goals, including the stunning winner, low to the stick side. As the colour commentator on TSN (Ray Ferraro?) said, with the rules now in effect in the NHL, it's harder to sit on a lead in the 3rd period, as New Jersey used to do when they were winning Cups, and as they tried to do in game 7.
Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 2. Completing my sweep of the Eastern Conference. As predicted, the Penguins' edge in goal proved decisive - although the Flyers had other deficits too.
Anaheim 4 San Jose 2. I was wrong, but I'm not that surprised. I recognized the Sharks were capable of choking, and they did. What I did not foresee was how well Jonas Hiller would play. And how could I? I never even heard of the guy.
Detroit 4 Columbus 0. The Wings started quickly, and didn't let up. Mason was not as great as I thought he might be. The play-offs are not the regular season. Without a hot goalie, this was men versus boys.
Vancouver 4 St. Louis 0. This was a surpise. I really thought St. Louis would show more than they did, and Vancouver less. And Luongo is pretty damn good.
Chicago 4 Calgary 2. Another surprise, although a pleasant one, since I don't like the Flames. Mind you, I did recognize that Chicago could win; I just didn't think they would do it this decisively. They have a lot of offensive talent. But Kiprasoff did not play very well, neither did Iginla, and Calgary got banged up.
So ... now for my second round predictions. These are more difficult. There are two mismatches in terms of regular season points - Boston (116) over Carolina (97) and Detroit (112) over Anaheim (91), but that is misleading because of the strong second-half play of the latter teams and their solid performances in the first round. The other two mismatches appear pretty even. But, choices must be made, so here are mine.
Boston 4 Carolina 2. This is a good match-up for the Bruins. They won all four games against the Hurricanes this year. Yes, Carolina did beat New Jersey in dramatic fashion, and Cam Ward is playing very well; but the Bruins have a lot more offence than the Devils, and if they get the lead they won't sit on it. Their power play is also much, much better than Carolina's.
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 3. This one could go either way, and probably depends on which team's superstar plays better. In head-to-head match-ups, Ovechkin has usually outplayed Crosby. On the other hand, Ovechkin is capable of trying to do too much, to the detriment of his team. I think Fleury is a better goaltender than Varlamov, who hasn't really been tested all that much so far. The Penguins didn't get a lot of support for Crosby and Malkin against Philly; and even at the best of times, I would say the Capitals are deeper. They also have home-ice advantage, and the way their fans are going crazy at present, that might count for quite a bit.
Detroit 4 Anaheim 3. Anaheim is playing well now, obviously; and if they upset San Jose, they ought to be able to upset the Wings. But I don't think they will. If they keep taking penalties in their usual fashion, the Detroit power play will torch them. Jonas Hiller was great in the first round, but will he play as well once he starts getting beat? I have my doubts. Holmstren and Franzen will be crashing the net.
Chicago 4 Vancouver 3. This is the hardest one to call, in my opinion. Chicago is better than I realized, and they have a lot of confidence now. Vancouver has home-ice advantage, but Chicago proved it can win on the road. If the series gets very physical, I think they have the edge. Vancouver definitely has the edge in goal, but if Khabibulin plays as well in this series as he did in the first, that should be good enough.
Boston 4 Montreal 0. I gave Montreal a game, based largely on the history of the play-off rivalry between these two clubs. But when the disparity in talent is so great, history doesn't even count that much. Montreal's showing was really quite pitiful. And Carey Price never threatened to steal a game, let alone the series.
Washington 4 New York 3. If Boudreau had played Varlamov in game 1, my prediction of 4-2 might have been right on. As it was, New York managed to cough up the series. Lundqvist wasn't quite good enough to salvage the Rangers, who really were anemic on offence. As predicted, talent counts.
Carolina 4 New Jersey 3. Another great comeback win gives me my bonus point. Just like I said, Ward outplayed Brodeur, particularly in the decisive game, in which Brodeur gave up two goals, including the stunning winner, low to the stick side. As the colour commentator on TSN (Ray Ferraro?) said, with the rules now in effect in the NHL, it's harder to sit on a lead in the 3rd period, as New Jersey used to do when they were winning Cups, and as they tried to do in game 7.
Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 2. Completing my sweep of the Eastern Conference. As predicted, the Penguins' edge in goal proved decisive - although the Flyers had other deficits too.
Anaheim 4 San Jose 2. I was wrong, but I'm not that surprised. I recognized the Sharks were capable of choking, and they did. What I did not foresee was how well Jonas Hiller would play. And how could I? I never even heard of the guy.
Detroit 4 Columbus 0. The Wings started quickly, and didn't let up. Mason was not as great as I thought he might be. The play-offs are not the regular season. Without a hot goalie, this was men versus boys.
Vancouver 4 St. Louis 0. This was a surpise. I really thought St. Louis would show more than they did, and Vancouver less. And Luongo is pretty damn good.
Chicago 4 Calgary 2. Another surprise, although a pleasant one, since I don't like the Flames. Mind you, I did recognize that Chicago could win; I just didn't think they would do it this decisively. They have a lot of offensive talent. But Kiprasoff did not play very well, neither did Iginla, and Calgary got banged up.
So ... now for my second round predictions. These are more difficult. There are two mismatches in terms of regular season points - Boston (116) over Carolina (97) and Detroit (112) over Anaheim (91), but that is misleading because of the strong second-half play of the latter teams and their solid performances in the first round. The other two mismatches appear pretty even. But, choices must be made, so here are mine.
Boston 4 Carolina 2. This is a good match-up for the Bruins. They won all four games against the Hurricanes this year. Yes, Carolina did beat New Jersey in dramatic fashion, and Cam Ward is playing very well; but the Bruins have a lot more offence than the Devils, and if they get the lead they won't sit on it. Their power play is also much, much better than Carolina's.
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 3. This one could go either way, and probably depends on which team's superstar plays better. In head-to-head match-ups, Ovechkin has usually outplayed Crosby. On the other hand, Ovechkin is capable of trying to do too much, to the detriment of his team. I think Fleury is a better goaltender than Varlamov, who hasn't really been tested all that much so far. The Penguins didn't get a lot of support for Crosby and Malkin against Philly; and even at the best of times, I would say the Capitals are deeper. They also have home-ice advantage, and the way their fans are going crazy at present, that might count for quite a bit.
Detroit 4 Anaheim 3. Anaheim is playing well now, obviously; and if they upset San Jose, they ought to be able to upset the Wings. But I don't think they will. If they keep taking penalties in their usual fashion, the Detroit power play will torch them. Jonas Hiller was great in the first round, but will he play as well once he starts getting beat? I have my doubts. Holmstren and Franzen will be crashing the net.
Chicago 4 Vancouver 3. This is the hardest one to call, in my opinion. Chicago is better than I realized, and they have a lot of confidence now. Vancouver has home-ice advantage, but Chicago proved it can win on the road. If the series gets very physical, I think they have the edge. Vancouver definitely has the edge in goal, but if Khabibulin plays as well in this series as he did in the first, that should be good enough.
# posted by Stephen @ 10:56 p.m. 
