Tuesday, April 28, 2009
First round wrap-up and second round predictions
A very creditable performance, I think: 6-2 with a bonus point for 7 points total.
Boston 4 Montreal 0. I gave Montreal a game, based largely on the history of the play-off rivalry between these two clubs. But when the disparity in talent is so great, history doesn't even count that much. Montreal's showing was really quite pitiful. And Carey Price never threatened to steal a game, let alone the series.
Washington 4 New York 3. If Boudreau had played Varlamov in game 1, my prediction of 4-2 might have been right on. As it was, New York managed to cough up the series. Lundqvist wasn't quite good enough to salvage the Rangers, who really were anemic on offence. As predicted, talent counts.
Carolina 4 New Jersey 3. Another great comeback win gives me my bonus point. Just like I said, Ward outplayed Brodeur, particularly in the decisive game, in which Brodeur gave up two goals, including the stunning winner, low to the stick side. As the colour commentator on TSN (Ray Ferraro?) said, with the rules now in effect in the NHL, it's harder to sit on a lead in the 3rd period, as New Jersey used to do when they were winning Cups, and as they tried to do in game 7.
Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 2. Completing my sweep of the Eastern Conference. As predicted, the Penguins' edge in goal proved decisive - although the Flyers had other deficits too.
Anaheim 4 San Jose 2. I was wrong, but I'm not that surprised. I recognized the Sharks were capable of choking, and they did. What I did not foresee was how well Jonas Hiller would play. And how could I? I never even heard of the guy.
Detroit 4 Columbus 0. The Wings started quickly, and didn't let up. Mason was not as great as I thought he might be. The play-offs are not the regular season. Without a hot goalie, this was men versus boys.
Vancouver 4 St. Louis 0. This was a surpise. I really thought St. Louis would show more than they did, and Vancouver less. And Luongo is pretty damn good.
Chicago 4 Calgary 2. Another surprise, although a pleasant one, since I don't like the Flames. Mind you, I did recognize that Chicago could win; I just didn't think they would do it this decisively. They have a lot of offensive talent. But Kiprasoff did not play very well, neither did Iginla, and Calgary got banged up.
So ... now for my second round predictions. These are more difficult. There are two mismatches in terms of regular season points - Boston (116) over Carolina (97) and Detroit (112) over Anaheim (91), but that is misleading because of the strong second-half play of the latter teams and their solid performances in the first round. The other two mismatches appear pretty even. But, choices must be made, so here are mine.
Boston 4 Carolina 2. This is a good match-up for the Bruins. They won all four games against the Hurricanes this year. Yes, Carolina did beat New Jersey in dramatic fashion, and Cam Ward is playing very well; but the Bruins have a lot more offence than the Devils, and if they get the lead they won't sit on it. Their power play is also much, much better than Carolina's.
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 3. This one could go either way, and probably depends on which team's superstar plays better. In head-to-head match-ups, Ovechkin has usually outplayed Crosby. On the other hand, Ovechkin is capable of trying to do too much, to the detriment of his team. I think Fleury is a better goaltender than Varlamov, who hasn't really been tested all that much so far. The Penguins didn't get a lot of support for Crosby and Malkin against Philly; and even at the best of times, I would say the Capitals are deeper. They also have home-ice advantage, and the way their fans are going crazy at present, that might count for quite a bit.
Detroit 4 Anaheim 3. Anaheim is playing well now, obviously; and if they upset San Jose, they ought to be able to upset the Wings. But I don't think they will. If they keep taking penalties in their usual fashion, the Detroit power play will torch them. Jonas Hiller was great in the first round, but will he play as well once he starts getting beat? I have my doubts. Holmstren and Franzen will be crashing the net.
Chicago 4 Vancouver 3. This is the hardest one to call, in my opinion. Chicago is better than I realized, and they have a lot of confidence now. Vancouver has home-ice advantage, but Chicago proved it can win on the road. If the series gets very physical, I think they have the edge. Vancouver definitely has the edge in goal, but if Khabibulin plays as well in this series as he did in the first, that should be good enough.
Boston 4 Montreal 0. I gave Montreal a game, based largely on the history of the play-off rivalry between these two clubs. But when the disparity in talent is so great, history doesn't even count that much. Montreal's showing was really quite pitiful. And Carey Price never threatened to steal a game, let alone the series.
Washington 4 New York 3. If Boudreau had played Varlamov in game 1, my prediction of 4-2 might have been right on. As it was, New York managed to cough up the series. Lundqvist wasn't quite good enough to salvage the Rangers, who really were anemic on offence. As predicted, talent counts.
Carolina 4 New Jersey 3. Another great comeback win gives me my bonus point. Just like I said, Ward outplayed Brodeur, particularly in the decisive game, in which Brodeur gave up two goals, including the stunning winner, low to the stick side. As the colour commentator on TSN (Ray Ferraro?) said, with the rules now in effect in the NHL, it's harder to sit on a lead in the 3rd period, as New Jersey used to do when they were winning Cups, and as they tried to do in game 7.
Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 2. Completing my sweep of the Eastern Conference. As predicted, the Penguins' edge in goal proved decisive - although the Flyers had other deficits too.
Anaheim 4 San Jose 2. I was wrong, but I'm not that surprised. I recognized the Sharks were capable of choking, and they did. What I did not foresee was how well Jonas Hiller would play. And how could I? I never even heard of the guy.
Detroit 4 Columbus 0. The Wings started quickly, and didn't let up. Mason was not as great as I thought he might be. The play-offs are not the regular season. Without a hot goalie, this was men versus boys.
Vancouver 4 St. Louis 0. This was a surpise. I really thought St. Louis would show more than they did, and Vancouver less. And Luongo is pretty damn good.
Chicago 4 Calgary 2. Another surprise, although a pleasant one, since I don't like the Flames. Mind you, I did recognize that Chicago could win; I just didn't think they would do it this decisively. They have a lot of offensive talent. But Kiprasoff did not play very well, neither did Iginla, and Calgary got banged up.
So ... now for my second round predictions. These are more difficult. There are two mismatches in terms of regular season points - Boston (116) over Carolina (97) and Detroit (112) over Anaheim (91), but that is misleading because of the strong second-half play of the latter teams and their solid performances in the first round. The other two mismatches appear pretty even. But, choices must be made, so here are mine.
Boston 4 Carolina 2. This is a good match-up for the Bruins. They won all four games against the Hurricanes this year. Yes, Carolina did beat New Jersey in dramatic fashion, and Cam Ward is playing very well; but the Bruins have a lot more offence than the Devils, and if they get the lead they won't sit on it. Their power play is also much, much better than Carolina's.
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 3. This one could go either way, and probably depends on which team's superstar plays better. In head-to-head match-ups, Ovechkin has usually outplayed Crosby. On the other hand, Ovechkin is capable of trying to do too much, to the detriment of his team. I think Fleury is a better goaltender than Varlamov, who hasn't really been tested all that much so far. The Penguins didn't get a lot of support for Crosby and Malkin against Philly; and even at the best of times, I would say the Capitals are deeper. They also have home-ice advantage, and the way their fans are going crazy at present, that might count for quite a bit.
Detroit 4 Anaheim 3. Anaheim is playing well now, obviously; and if they upset San Jose, they ought to be able to upset the Wings. But I don't think they will. If they keep taking penalties in their usual fashion, the Detroit power play will torch them. Jonas Hiller was great in the first round, but will he play as well once he starts getting beat? I have my doubts. Holmstren and Franzen will be crashing the net.
Chicago 4 Vancouver 3. This is the hardest one to call, in my opinion. Chicago is better than I realized, and they have a lot of confidence now. Vancouver has home-ice advantage, but Chicago proved it can win on the road. If the series gets very physical, I think they have the edge. Vancouver definitely has the edge in goal, but if Khabibulin plays as well in this series as he did in the first, that should be good enough.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Stanley Cup play-off first round predictions
I haven't done this for awhile. J and I used to do it together, and I usually won. It's harder now, since I pay much less attention to hockey - and J has virtually no interest now - but what have I got to lose? I don't have anything to win either, but I suppose if I prognosticate well, it will give me some satisfaction. Why blog it? Well, there must be a record, mustn't there? As it happens, I picked Angel Cabrera to win the Masters - not before the event, but after the second round - but didn't tell anyone. This time, I have proof, baby.
So, herewith my fearless picks - with some comments.
1. Boston 4 Montreal 1. This is the Charlie Brown series. That is to say, the fucking Canadiens almost always (24-7) find a way to break my heart. Not this year, though. Boston is just way better, and Carey Price won't stand on his head this year, which is what it would take. Boston has owned Montreal during the season. I don't even give Montreal more than a game.
2. Washington 4 New York 2. Again, the Capitals are just way better than the Rangers, and handled them during the season. Here the underdog does have a goalie who can stand on his head. That's what it will take, because the Rangers just don't have enough scoring, especially on the power play.
3. Carolina 4 New Jersey 3. I'm going with the underdog here. Brodeur is not the goalie he once was. He can still play outstandingly in any given game, but he's much less consistent than he used to be, which was his hallmark. Yes, the Devils have great play-off experience, but the Hurricanes won the Cup more recently. Cam Ward won the Conn Smythe that year, and I would rather have him in net right now than Brodeur. Carolina was as hot as any team in the stretch.
4. Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 3. Once again, the Flyers will flounder because they don't have top goaltending.
5. San Jose 4 Anaheim 2. The Ducks did finish strong, but the Sharks were strong all year long. San Jose is capable of choking, but I don't think it will happen in the first round.
6. Detroit 4 Columbus 2. Detroit is also capable of losing in the first round, as they have done plenty of times in the past, particularly when facing a hot goalie. And no one is hotter than Steve Mason. I think he'll steal a couple of games, but I don't see the Wings letting him steal four, even if they start slowly.
7. Vancouver 4 St. Louis 3. This should be very close. Both teams were very strong in the second half of the season. The Blues haven't been in the play-offs for quite awhile, and I think their inexperience will show. Vancouver has the edge in goal.
8. Calgary 4 Chicago 3. I'm going with the underdog here, but there were only 6 points separating the teams during the regular season. Chicago is a better team and won all four games against the Flames this year, but like St. Louis this is their first year in the play-offs in some time and I think that will tell. If Khabibulin outplays Kiprusoff, however, this series could easily go the other way.
So, herewith my fearless picks - with some comments.
1. Boston 4 Montreal 1. This is the Charlie Brown series. That is to say, the fucking Canadiens almost always (24-7) find a way to break my heart. Not this year, though. Boston is just way better, and Carey Price won't stand on his head this year, which is what it would take. Boston has owned Montreal during the season. I don't even give Montreal more than a game.
2. Washington 4 New York 2. Again, the Capitals are just way better than the Rangers, and handled them during the season. Here the underdog does have a goalie who can stand on his head. That's what it will take, because the Rangers just don't have enough scoring, especially on the power play.
3. Carolina 4 New Jersey 3. I'm going with the underdog here. Brodeur is not the goalie he once was. He can still play outstandingly in any given game, but he's much less consistent than he used to be, which was his hallmark. Yes, the Devils have great play-off experience, but the Hurricanes won the Cup more recently. Cam Ward won the Conn Smythe that year, and I would rather have him in net right now than Brodeur. Carolina was as hot as any team in the stretch.
4. Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 3. Once again, the Flyers will flounder because they don't have top goaltending.
5. San Jose 4 Anaheim 2. The Ducks did finish strong, but the Sharks were strong all year long. San Jose is capable of choking, but I don't think it will happen in the first round.
6. Detroit 4 Columbus 2. Detroit is also capable of losing in the first round, as they have done plenty of times in the past, particularly when facing a hot goalie. And no one is hotter than Steve Mason. I think he'll steal a couple of games, but I don't see the Wings letting him steal four, even if they start slowly.
7. Vancouver 4 St. Louis 3. This should be very close. Both teams were very strong in the second half of the season. The Blues haven't been in the play-offs for quite awhile, and I think their inexperience will show. Vancouver has the edge in goal.
8. Calgary 4 Chicago 3. I'm going with the underdog here, but there were only 6 points separating the teams during the regular season. Chicago is a better team and won all four games against the Flames this year, but like St. Louis this is their first year in the play-offs in some time and I think that will tell. If Khabibulin outplays Kiprusoff, however, this series could easily go the other way.
Monday, April 06, 2009
Cirque du Bombast
I watched a bit of this last night. I've only seen them once live. That was a long time ago, here in Toronto, and I loved it. But it does seem to me there's a lot of padding in the show now. Half the time I was watching was taken up by the performers bowing and posturing and running on and off stage, goosing the audience to applaud. Subtract the bombastic music, the melodramatic lighting effects, and the glitzy costumes, and there's not really all that much going on.
I suppose the creator deserves credit from a business point of view for getting more buck for the bang - he does have some piddly spousal support obligations, after all - but it strikes me as aesthetically bad.
I suppose the creator deserves credit from a business point of view for getting more buck for the bang - he does have some piddly spousal support obligations, after all - but it strikes me as aesthetically bad.
Friday, April 03, 2009
Denise!
My favourite commercials currently on TV are the Viagra "intermissions", which are 10 second spots in which you see a man and a woman doing very little when suddenly the man calls out the woman's name (or in the case of "Bobby", vice versa), then a cut, then you see them again looking very satisfied. And of these erection discovery moments, my favourite is "Denise", featuring a wonderfully horny-looking old bastard. He only says "Denise", but you can read "Denise, I'm ready, and I want it now." They probably didn't even leave the kitchen nook.
